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Probability, Odds and Outs

on July 5 | in Texas Hold em Poker | by | with No Comments

Probability tells you how many times an event will happen while odds tell you how many times an event will not happen. For example, the odds are 3 to 1 against
improving your hand while the probability of improving your hand is 25% or 1 in 4. Pot odds is the relationship between the current pot and the current bet Implied pot
odds is the relationship between the current pot and the bets you expect to win, to the current bet.

An out is a card that improves your hand. An out is counterfeited when a card that improves your hand improves your opponent’s hand to an even better hand. Outs
that are potentially counterfeited should be discounted when calculating odds, and disregarded if you are probably drawing dead.

If you are playing on the Internet, you can simply use our software zpOdds for knowing your odds. One of the most common mistakes made by many players is assuming that they will
win when a particular card improves their hand. When determining your outs, you must look at those outs that will improve your hand to the winning hand.

Whenever the flop is two-suited, you should discount a suited out against a lone opponent and probably disregard the out against several opponents for the risk that
one of them holds a flush draw.

When drawing on the flop, you should discount your outs a little, and maybe a lot, for the probability that your opponents could draw to an even better hand on the river.

The basic steps in applying odds at the poker table are as follows:

1. Determine the number of discounted outs.

2. Calculate the pot odds.

3. Calculate the implied pot odds.

4. Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand.

5. Determine your best strategy.

In many cases, it is the size of the pot that determines if drawing to a particular hand is profitable. Given the same exact hand and scenario, your hand could either
be folded or played depending on me size of the pot.

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